Data processing and
analysis
Data
entry
Once the completed Seabird 2000
recording
forms had been collated, logged and checked they were
then ready for data entry. From very early on in the project
it was decided that the data would be collected and disseminated
according to the principles and standards of the National
Biodiversity Network (NBN). The NBN is a UK wide initiative to
share information about wildlife via the internet (for more
information see
http://www.nbn.org.uk/). For data
entry, the
Recorder
2000 software was used and was customized to allow the
data to be entered directly from the survey sheets into a
relational database. In total, Seabird 2000 surveyors recorded over
25,000 individual species counts, which took the equivalent of one
person two years to enter onto the database.
Validation and checking of the data was required to ensure
that it had been accurately copied from the Seabird 2000 recording
forms. The customised 'add-in' for
Recorder 2000 provided
validation routines during data entry to ensure that, for example,
grid references were correct, dates were within the survey period
specified etc. These validation routines were able to identify some
but not all errors in data entry. Therefore, once the data had been
entered and had satisfied the validation routines, data-entry
personnel then checked and ticked off the entries presented in two
data-trees in
Recorder 2000 . The
Location Tree contains
information about each site and its constituent sub-sites. The
Observations Tree contains information
collected on each visit to a sub-site, including records of species
present, counts, habitat types and predators present.
A frequent source of error in the final analysis of the
Seabird 2000 data was caused by duplicate counts of the same
species at the same sub-site. The Seabird 2000 recording forms
enabled surveyors to enter repeated counts of a species at a
sub-site as 'recounts', if they superseded previous counts because
they were of better quality. However, some surveyors failed to flag
recounts on the forms. Such errors were mostly identified at the
data entry stage, but some duplicates were mistakenly entered on
the database. All duplicate counts entered on the database for the
same species at the same sub-site, that were not flagged as
recounts, were individually checked to remove any
errors.
Information in the Seabird 2000 database is held in 120
interrelated tables. Once all the data had been entered and was
ready for analysis, an automatic routine moved the data into a
single spreadsheet. Summaries of the analyses performed on this
spreadsheet are given in a separate chapter for each species.
Presentation of Seabird 2000 Count Data
Within each species' account on this website, the population
size and distribution of each species is summarised at the
following scales: colony, administrative area and country.
Colony
Each species chapter presents a map of Britain and Ireland
showing the position and size of each colony. In most cases, a
'colony' equates to a single Seabird 2000 sub-site. However, to
improve clarity, the counts from adjacent sub-sites in areas of
high seabird density or in island groups, have been combined and
presented as a single colony. Within all species accounts (except,
Leach's and European Storm-Petrels, Manx Shearwaters, Arctic and
Great Skuas and Black Guillemots) the data for Shetland and Orkney
presented on maps showing distribution and abundance have been
summarised by the geographical areas shown in Figure 3.
However the insert maps of Shetland and Orkney on the same figures
present data at the sub-site/colony level.
Administrative Area
Each chapter presents a table containing the total population
size of the particular species in each administrative area within
Great Britain, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, plus
totals for each of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands. The
administrative boundaries used in this book to summarise Seabird
2000 data are shown
Table 1 and
Figure 3. However, these administrative
areas no longer used by local and national governments within the
UK and were replaced in 1996 by new county and unitary authority
boundaries. We considered the old boundaries (Table 1) to be more
appropriate for summarising seabird distribution in the UK since
the new boundaries are based upon head of population and thus tend
to be small in urban areas and large in rural areas. Furthermore,
the boundaries used in this book are much more comparable to those
used to summarise data from the previous two censuses (Cramp
et
al., 1974; Lloyd
et al., 1991) and still provide a
spatial scale that is relevant to conservation GOs and NGOs
throughout the UK.
The administrative areas of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
& Cromarty in northern Scotland include coastlines adjacent to
both the North Atlantic and the North Sea. In order to examine any
differences in the seabird populations breeding along the two
coastlines, coastal counts from the SCR Census and Seabird 2000
were divided into i) north coast Caithness and east coast
Caithness, separated at Duncansby Head Lighthouse (OS grid ref.
ND406733); ii) northwest coast Sutherland and east coast
Sutherland; iii) west coast Ross & Cromarty and east coast Ross
& Cromarty (this division was not possible for
Operation
Seafarer counts).
Country
Separate population totals are given for Britain (including
Isle of Man and the Channel Isles) and for Ireland (i.e. Northern
Ireland and the Republic of Ireland combined). This division is
relevant to the frames of the EU Birds Directive (1979) within
which, the importance of bird populations are assessed in the
contexts of Britain and Ireland.
Comparison with Previous Surveys
Operation Seafarer
Most counts were conducted in 1969 and 1970, with some counts
included from 1968 and 1971. Coverage was confined to coastal
colonies but was thought to be complete apart from gaps in Foula,
Shetland and in Caithness. The survey was initially summarised by
Cramp
et al. (1974). The data was then entered on to the
SCR database and summarised by Lloyd
et al. (1991) in
order to compare directly with the results of the SCR Census and to
take account of changing administrative boundaries between the two
censuses. They also applied more consistent criteria to select
counts from locations where repeated counts had been conducted.
Therefore the totals summarised in Lloyd
et al. (1991) for
Operation Seafarer are slightly different from
those in Cramp
et al. (1974). In this book we have used
the totals for Operation Seafarer given in Lloyd
et al.
(1991). The Operation Seafarer totals for administrative areas
and countries are tabulated along-side those from Seabird 2000 in
each species account; except Black Guillemots, Storm-petrels and
Manx Shearwaters, since census methods for these species were not
comparable between the two censuses (see each species account for
details).
Seabird Colony Register Census (SCR)
Most counts were conducted during 1985 and 1987, but counts
were used from 1988 if no previous counts were available (see Lloyd
et al.1991). Some data on urban gulls, terns, skuas and
black guillemots were collected outwith 1985-88 and were included
in the results of the SCR Census (Lloyd
et al. 1991) and
are detailed below. Data from the SCR Database for the years
1985-88 were imported into the
Recorder
2000 database so it could be viewed and analysed
alongside the Seabird 2000 dataset and others (see below). The SCR
data contained duplicate counts from the same sites but conducted
in different years. A single count was selected for each site
according to the criteria used by Lloyd
et al. (1991) and
listed in
Table 2.
SCR Census totals for administrative areas
and countries are tabulated alongside those from
Operation
Seafarer and Seabird 2000 in each species chapter; except
storm-petrels, Manx Shearwaters and Black Guillemots in the
Republic of Ireland, since SCR census methods for these species
were not comparable with those of Seabird 2000 (see chapter on
Census Methods).. As in Operation Seafarer, the
SCR Census did not attempt to survey
storm-petrels and Manx Shearwaters. Some colonies were visited in
one or both of the censuses and best guesses of the size of
breeding populations, usually of orders of magnitude, were made.
These were listed in Lloyd
et al. (1991) along with a list
of other known colonies based on information given in Cramp
et
al. (1974) gathered from visits to colonies during Operation
Seafarer and from historical records.
Apart from Black Guillemots and urban gulls (see below), the
task of completing a comprehensive comparison of counts from the
SCR and Seabird 2000 censuses for every single colony of every
species in Britain and Ireland proved beyond the scope and
timetable for producing this book. During the SCR Census around
3,300 coastal sites and 700 inland sites in Britain and Ireland
were recorded on the SCR Database. The main problems with comparing
these to sites surveyed during Seabird 2000 were three-fold: 1)
Coastal sites in the
SCR were of widely varying size from
stretches of coastline of less than 1km to single large islands or
even groups of islands. 2) SCR sites did not necessarily take
account of important boundaries such as SSSI's or SPA's (first
designated only in 1982). 3) 77% of coastal sites were defined by
only by a single, central OS grid reference, so it was impossible
to assess where the site actually started and ended. 4) Some
stretches of coast, particularly those containing large numbers of
seabirds were counted in more than one year during the SCR Census,
but changes in surveyor often mean that different areas were
surveyed in each year.
Hence presentation of change at the colony level was
restricted to the largest and most important colonies of each
species. For most species, these top colonies were selected on the
basis of
SCR Census counts and colony definitions.
For a given species, the counts for each colony from the SCR were
listed separately for Britain and for Ireland, in descending order
of size, and those colonies containing a certain percentage (see
individual species' accounts) of the British or All-Ireland
population were selected as 'top colonies'. For those species
that are aggregated in fewer colonies (e.g. Atlantic Puffin), a
higher percentage of the respective populations were represented by
the 'top colonies' than for those species that have a more
dispersed distribution (e.g. European Shag). Colonies of
.
gulls tend to be more mobile between years, with some colonies
disappearing while new ones form. In order to ensure that important
new gull colonies were selected as top sites, large colonies of
gulls were selected not just on the basis of their size during the
SCR, but were also of their size during Seabird 2000. Top sites of
Great Cormorants were selected in a similar way. Within each
species chapter, the size of each top colony during Seabird 2000
and the SCR Census are tabulated and their location marked on a
map, which also denotes the percentage change in numbers between
the two censuses.
Inland
Colonies
No inland colonies were surveyed during
Operation
Seafarer, all totals listed alongside
SCR and Seabird 2000 counts in this book are for
coastal colonies only. Counts from inland colonies were contained
in the SCR data imported into the
Recorder
2000 database. Coverage of inland sites during the
SCR census was incomplete and so was not included in the
administrative area and country totals reported in Lloyd
et
al. (1991). Inland sites were defined by Lloyd
et al.
(1991) as being within a 1km OS grid square that did not contain
any coastline, except in Orkney and Shetland, where all sites were
considered as coastal. However, it was not stated in the SCR
database whether or not a site was considered inland or coastal.
Thus, in order to separate out coastal sites from inland sites in
both the Seabird 2000 and SCR data, the following criteria were
applied. Using GIS, sites were defined as coastal if they were
situated within 5km of the mean high-water mark (OS Boundary-Line ™
© crown copyright). This 5km coastal buffer zone was based on a
frequency histogram of the number of colonies and their distance
from the coast (Figure 4). For distances greater than 5km, there
was no discernable pattern in the frequency distribution,
suggesting that there is little if any coastal influence on the
position of colonies situated more than 5km from the coast and that
these are effectively 'inland'. The 5km buffer was not applied to
colonies in Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles, where all
colonies were considered coastal.
International Context
Within each species' account there is a table giving a
breakdown of the international distribution of the species, based
on the latest population estimates for each country or region in
which the species is known to breed. Lloyd
et al. (1991)
presented international population estimates, which they used to
put the results of the SCR Census into a global context. Lloyd
et al. (1991) drew mainly on population estimates
published by the
International Council for Bird
Preservation (Croxall
et al. 1984, Croxall 1991).
While no more recent figures exist for some areas, notably parts of
northeast Asia, there have been more recent initiatives to survey
and collate estimates of seabird populations in other regions. For
example, the
European Bird Census Council (Birdlife International/EBCC 2000,
Hagemeijer & Blair 1997); and reviews of North American
population estimates published in the
Birds of North
America, by the
American Ornithologist's Union.
Where possible, population estimates are broken down by
sub-species. The population estimates from Seabird 2000 for Britain
(including Isle of Man and the Channel Islands) and Ireland are
expressed separately as a percentage of the world population and of
the relevant biogeographic population. The biogeographic population
is used to assess the international significance of colonies and is
one of the criteria used to designate sites as Special Protection
Areas under Article 4 of the
EU Birds Directive (1979). The separate contexts of
Britain and Ireland arise from the fact that these are the relevant
frames of reference under the Directive. The definition of the
biogeographic population of each species is prescribed in Stroud
et al. (2000).
In estimating the sizes of the global and biogeographic
populations of breeding seabirds a minimum and a maximum estimate
were derived from the best information available from each
individual country in which the species breeds. The former is
simply the total of the minimum estimates for each country and the
latter the total of the maximum estimates. In cases where the
published population estimate is not given as a range then clearly
the (single) estimate was used in deriving the relevant
international total estimate. No rounding conventions were adopted
as many of the published minimum and maximum estimates for
individual countries have already been rounded; while some of these
may be of specious accuracy, to apply a further, arbitrary rounding
convention would compound any error associated with them.
However, and again to avoid seeming accurate in the absence of it,
the total minimum and maximum global and biogeographic estimates
were rounded to the next lowest order of magnitude (
Table 3).
In determining the biogeographical importance of breeding
seabird populations in Britain and Ireland, again a minimum and a
maximum value were derived. The former was computed by dividing the
minimum total British or Irish population estimated from the
present survey by the maximum biogeographical estimate, and the
latter was derived by dividing the maximum British or Irish
estimate by the minimum biogeographical estimate. The global
importance of British and Irish populations were assessed in
similar fashion. Minimum and maximum values for biogeographical and
global importance were rounded to only one decimal place, again to
avoid spurious accuracy.
Tables and figures